The Strategic Edge: Crewed 6th-Gen Fighters In The Indo-Pacific

The recent daylight flight test of China’s suspected J-36 next-generation combat aircraft on December 26, 2024, highlights a critical dimension in the evolving military competition between the United States and China. This development, coming after the US Air Force’s own NGAD (Next-Generation Air Dominance) program demonstrator flights, underscores the strategic value of large, crewed combat aircraft specifically in the Indo-Pacific theater despite their substantial costs and the growing interest in uncrewed alternatives.

Vast Distances Create Unique Challenges

The vast distances of the Indo-Pacific region create unique operational challenges that directly influence aircraft design requirements. For the US Air Force, the primary challenge stems from China’s extensive missile arsenal, which can threaten forward operating bases throughout the region. With few secure bases beyond Chinese missile range Andersen Air Force Base in Guam being a notable exception American aircraft require exceptional range capabilities.

Current Fighter Limitations

Current U.S. tactical fighters like the F-22, F/A-18E/F, F-15E, and even the relatively long-ranged F-35C have combat radii measured only in hundreds of nautical miles. This limitation forces heavy reliance on aerial refueling tankers, which themselves are vulnerable to China’s long-range anti-air capabilities. This vulnerability has driven the NGAD requirement for an unrefuelled combat radius exceeding 1,000 nautical miles necessitating a larger and consequently more expensive aircraft.

China’s Similar Operational Constraints

China faces similar challenges. The PLAAF needs aircraft capable of extended defensive and offensive counter-air operations across vast maritime distances, while knowing U.S. stealth aircraft and advanced sensor networks could target any Chinese tankers venturing far from the mainland. This reality explains the J-36’s apparent large size and fuel capacity.

European Theater’s Distinct Advantage

The strategic calculus differs significantly in Europe. The continent offers numerous airbases and airports with suitable runways for military aircraft operations. NATO forces benefit from multiple potential divert locations if aircraft run low on fuel during combat operations. The option to conduct rapid refueling at forward operating locations is more viable in Europe than in the Indo-Pacific.

Russia’s Limited Air Threat

Additionally, Russia lacks the capability to challenge NATO aircraft deep beyond its borders in high-intensity conflict scenarios. This fundamentally different operational environment means the cost and fleet size trade-offs associated with very large next-generation fighters make less strategic sense for air forces primarily focused on European and Middle Eastern theaters.

Stand-Off Weapons Requirements

The Indo-Pacific theater creates unique weapons requirements that further justify larger aircraft. Both U.S. and Chinese sensor capabilities and long-range missile development will force even stealthy aircraft to engage targets from significantly greater stand-off ranges than those required against Russian or Iranian defenses. This creates a premium on the ability to carry outsized air-to-air and air-to-surface munitions with extended range capabilities.

Since stealth aircraft must carry weapons internally to maintain their low-observable characteristics, physically larger airframes with spacious internal weapons bays become necessary. The large central weapons bay visible on the J-36 demonstrator suggests Chinese designers recognize this requirement.

Also read this: China’s Naval Exercises In The Pacific: A Comprehensive Review

Electronic Warfare Battlefield

In the electromagnetic warfare domain, both the U.S. and China are developing capabilities to disrupt the complex, cross-domain networks required for long-range targeting. This trend increases the risk of relying solely on distributed uncrewed systems like the collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) concept. If datalinks between distributed assets are degraded—a virtual certainty in high-intensity conflict each element of the uncrewed system becomes less effective.

In heavily contested electromagnetic environments, where every airframe and weapon is crucial for power projection over great distances, there remains significant value in having even a relatively small number of comprehensive, crewed combat aircraft capable of operating effectively when temporarily isolated from other force elements.

Despite their considerable expense, these realities suggest that large, crewed sixth-generation aircraft like NGAD and J-36 will continue to play a vital role in Indo-Pacific strategy, even as uncrewed systems grow in importance and capability.

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