Is There a “Ship Gap” Between the US and China?

Over the past few years, concerns about China’s navy and its potential threat to U.S. interests have steadily grown. Does America Face a “Ship Gap” with China? Two decades ago, the U.S. Navy had 282 battle-force ships against the Chinese navy’s 220, but by the mid-2010s, this advantage had disappeared. Today, Chinese ships outnumber those of the U.S. Navy 400 to 295. If the United States’ shipbuilding pace remains unchanged, this so-called ship gap will only continue to grow.

Quality vs. Quantity

Raw numbers do not reflect the quality or capabilities of a navy’s vessels. U.S. ships are typically larger than Chinese vessels and have superior sensors, electronics, and weapons. For example, the Chinese submarine force consists mostly of conventional diesel-powered submarines, whereas the 49 attack submarines in the U.S. Navy are nuclear-powered and far more capable. U.S. ships are also operated by better-trained crews under the command of more experienced officers, as demonstrated during recent operations against the Houthis in the Middle East.

China’s Industrial Advantage

China’s massive industrial shipbuilding capacity offers important advantages in a long war that superior quality or skill can only partly offset. China has the world’s largest shipbuilding industry by a huge margin, launching more tonnage every year than the rest of the world combined. According to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, China’s capacity in this sector exceeds the United States’s by a factor of more than 200, giving China an ability to rapidly expand or replace losses that the United States simply cannot match.

Historical Parallels

The current situation mirrors the United States and imperial Japan in World War II’s Pacific theater, but with the roles reversed. At the outset of that conflict, the U.S. Navy was less skilled and experienced than Japan’s but was backed by much greater industrial capacity. When the U.S. entered World War II, it suffered early defeats but ultimately prevailed through superior production capabilities. By the end of the war, the U.S. fleet was more than 20 times as large as Japan’s, with most ships built during the conflict.

Production Timeline Challenges

A crucial problem for U.S. shipbuilding is its increasingly long production timelines. It now takes 11 years to build an aircraft carrier, nine years for a nuclear attack submarine or destroyer timeframes that have grown considerably over the past 15 years. During World War II, an aircraft carrier could be built in just over a year. If today’s U.S. Navy suffers heavy losses early in a conflict, replacements could take decades.

Narrowing Qualitative Edge

China is making steady progress in eroding the United States’ qualitative edge. The Office of Naval Intelligence told Congress in 2020 that Chinese naval ships are now “in many cases comparable” to their U.S. counterparts. Beijing is building more aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines in about half the time it currently takes US shipyards to produce similar vessels.

Also read this: China’s Fujian Aircraft Carrier Embarks On 7th Sea Trial

Potential Solutions

To address these challenges, the U.S. could consider several approaches:

• Leverage allies: South Korea and Japan are the second- and third-largest shipbuilders globally
• Stockpile critical components needed for shipbuilding during peacetime
• Create industrial capacity greater than peacetime needs to allow wartime expansion
• Expand the shipbuilding portfolio to include smaller vessels like missile-armed corvettes
• Invest in unmanned vessels that can be sourced from different shipyards
• Arm more support vessels or prepare to convert merchant ships to carry missiles

The United States needs to recognize the consequences of its inferior industrial capacity and act quickly to address this deficiency before it’s too late.

Source

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